Factfulness is about recognizing that we have a bunch of inherited instincts that guides us. These instincts can sometimes work against us and make us believe that the world is getting worse when it isn’t. It’s valuable knowing about these instincts, and to understand how they work.
#The gap instinct
We have that irresistible temptation to divide all kinds of things into two distinct groups, with an imagined gap in between: Two kinds of countries, two kinds of people, rich versus poor. Dividing the world into misleading boxes distorts all the global proportions in your mind.
There are three common warning signs that someone may be telling you an over dramatic gap story to trigger your gap instinct:
- Comparisons of average. Any type of simplification of information may also be misleading. Remember that averages are no exception. Averages mislead by hiding a spread.
- Comparisons of extreme. We are naturally drawn to extreme examples, and they are easy to recall. They are provocative and effective for triggering our gap instinct. But the fact that extremes exist doesn’t tell us much. There will always be the worst regimes and the best.
- The view from up here. Mass media loves non-representative extraordinary events and shuns normality. Anyone who has looked down from the top of a building knows that it’s difficult to assess the differences in height of the buildings near the ground.
#The negativity instinct
The negativity instinct is our tendency to notice the bad more than the good. Never trust data 100 percent, there is always some uncertainty. As long as people have a worldview that is so much more negative than reality, pure statistics can make them feel more positive.
Remember that averages disguise spreads. The news are doing selective reporting. Stories about gradual improvement rarely makes the front page. Also remember that thanks to the increasing press freedom and improving technology we hear about more disasters than ever before. It doesn’t mean the world is getting worse, it means that media has better reach.
Back in 1800, when Swedes starved to death and British children worked in coal mines, life expectancy was roughly 30 years everywhere in the world. That was what it had been throughout history. Among all babies who were ever born, roughly half died during their childhood. Most of the other half died between the ages of 50 and 70. So the average was around 30. It doesn’t mean most people lived to be 30. It’s just an average, and with averages we must always remember that there’s a spread.
Constantly resist the overdramatic worldview.
Remember that things can be both bad and better at the same time. Expect bad news. It helps control the negativity instinct. Media relies on drama to grab your attention. Information about bad events are much more likely to reach us.
#The straight line instinct
Not all lines are straight. Curves naturally comes in a lot of different shapes. Curves could be shaped like an S, or a slide, or a hump.
“Saving poor children just increases the population” sounds correct, but the opposite is true. Delaying the escape from extreme poverty just increases the population. Every generation kept in extreme poverty will produce an even larger next generation. The only proven method for curbing population growth is to eradicate extreme poverty and give people better lives, including education and contraceptives.
Make sure to understand the shape of the curve you’re looking at. You can’t assume a curve will continue beyond what you see. An apparently straight upward trend could be part of a straight line, an S-bend, a hump, or a doubling line.
#The fear instinct
When we are afraid, we don’t see clearly. Different levels of income means that some of our primordial fears are still useful to people living on level 1 and 2, while for people on level 3 and 4 these biological tendencies can do more harm than good.
Imagine that we have a shield, or attention filter, between the world and our brain. This attention filter protects us against the noise of the world: without it, we would constantly be bombarded with so much information we would be overloaded and paralyzed. Then imagine that the attention filter has ten instinct-shaped holes in it—gap, negativity, straight line, and so on. Most information doesn’t get through, but the holes do allow through information that appeals to our dramatic instincts. So we end up paying attention to information that fits our dramatic instincts, and ignoring information that does not.
The media cannot resist to tap into our fear instinct. It’s an easy way to grab our attention. Fear can be useful, only if it is directed at the right things. Remember that “frightening” and “dangerous” are two different things. Frightening poses a perceived risk. Dangerous poses a real risk.
The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected—by your own attention filter or by the media—precisely because it is scary.
#The size instinct
The size instinct directs our limited attention to what is right in front of our eyes. Maybe it’s more helpful to think about where you can do the most good?
- Half the increase in child survival in the world happens because the mothers can read and write.
- “In the deepest poverty you should never do anything perfectly. If you do you are stealing resources from where they can be better used.”
- Never believe that one number can be meaningful to you. Ask for something to compare it with.
- Be especially careful about big numbers.
- Most of the world population lives in Asia.
- Recognize when a lonely number seems impressive (small or large.)
It is hard for people to talk about resources when it comes to saving lives, or prolonging or improving them. Doing so is often taken for heartlessness. Yet so long as resources are not infinite—and they never are infinite—it is the most compassionate thing to do to use your brain and work out how to do the most good with what you have.
#The generalization instinct
- Wrong generalizations are mind-blockers for all kinds of understanding.
- The generalization instinct makes “us” think “them” as all the same.
- The main factor that affects how people live is not their religion, their culture, or the country they live in, but their income.
- Be cautious about generalizing from Level 4 experiences to the rest of the world.
- Look for differences within groups. Especially when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise categories.
- Look for similarities across groups. If you find striking similarities between different groups, consider whether your categories are relevant.
- Beware of “the majority.” The majority just means more than half. Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.
If someone offers you a single example and wants to draw conclusions about a group, ask for more examples. Or flip it over: i.e., ask whether an opposite example would make you draw the opposite conclusion. If you are happy to conclude that all chemicals are unsafe on the basis of one unsafe chemical, would you be prepared to conclude that all chemicals are safe on the basis of one safe chemical?
#The destiny instinct
- The destiny instinct is the idea that things are as they are for inescapable reasons: they have always been this way and will never change.
- This instinct makes us believe our false generalizations are fated.
- Societies and cultures are not like rocks, unchanging and unchangeable. They move.
- A free media is no guarantee that the world’s fastest cultural changes will be reported.
- Don’t confuse slow change with no change.
- A small change every year can translate to a huge change over decades.
- Some knowledge goes out of date quickly.
- Technology, countries, societies, cultures, and religions are constantly changing.
#The single perspective instinct
Forming your worldview by relying on the media would be like forming your view about someone by looking only at a picture of their foot. If you’re always in favor or always against something makes you blind to information that doesn’t fit your perspective. It can be energizing to hear evidence of progress.
With people who have a hammer everything starts looking like a nail. Get a toolbox instead of any particular tool.
Experts in maternal mortality who understand the point about hammers and nails can see that the most valuable intervention for saving the lives of the poorest mothers is not training more local nurses to perform C-sections, or better treatment of severe bleeding or infections, but the availability of transport to the local hospital.
Remember that an answer is usually not either/or. It’s case-by-case and can often be both. No one tools is good for everything. If your favorite idea is a hammer, look for people with screwdrivers, wrenches, and tape measures.
#The blame instinct
The blame instinct is the instinct to find a clear, simple reason why something bad has happened. Reflecting reality is not something the media can be expected to do. You should not expect the media to provide you with a fact-based worldview any more than you would think it reasonable to use a set of holiday snaps of Berlin as your GPS system to help you navigate around the city. When abortions is made illegal it doesn’t stop abortions. It makes abortions more dangerous and increase the risk of the woman dying.
#The urgency instinct
Our ability to think analytically can be overwhelmed by an urge to make quick decisions and take immediate action. When people tell you to act now, be hesitant. In most cases they are just trying to keep you from thinking clearly. Fear plus urgency make for stupid, drastic decisions with unpredictable side effects.
People who are serious about climate change must keep two thoughts in their heads at once: they must continue to care about the problem but not become victims of their own frustrated, alarmist messages.
If you can’t track progress, you don’t know whether your actions are working. Remember that data must be used to tell the truth, not to call to action.